Iraq: Another One Bites the Dust
Now they're talking exit strategy. Sounds familiar?
The magazine cannot escape the ghost of Vietnam.
It would be easy to say that Vietnam didn't turn out that bad after all (neither did the US). Just a couple of days ago, the US Congress passed a law normalizing trade with Vietnam. The business press is all praises for Vietnam's coming of age as the new economic "tiger."
So maybe we'll see a bright future for Iraq as well?
But that is like jumping to the happy ending without the agony along the way. (Remember the movie "Click"?) Vietnam lost an entire generation from the war. It is still counting the social cost. And the US had to grapple with its conscience and its own human and political loss. (Speaking of movies again, the Americans had to foist the "Rambo" series and other Vietnam War movies to the hapless world in its very public act of catharsis.)
Despite attempts by the US government to prevent news and photos of casualties from reaching its citizenry, the sad truth is that the price being paid in Iraq is high. There will be another round of catharsis. True, 9/11 can fuel rightful indignation that can rationalize this cost, but there is no denying the suffering.
The suffering in Vietnam and Iraq were and are real. When the Americans left Saigon, the North was on the verge of taking over. It was the tailend of a revolution. In Iraq it is possible that the civil war is just beginning.
There are many more differences than similarities, among them geographic and cultural, between these two cases.
The Cold War Asian Edition, which aimed to control the possible "domino effect" from the fall of Saigon, led to dictatorial regimes in countries around Vietnam, propped up by the US. It does not look like the Arab states around Iraq would play along as easily as the Asian states did during the Cold War.
It is an uncertain scenario. Maybe a strategy could be forged, but that would be at best going for a "least cost", rather than a "win", outcome. Maybe there is a positive future, but it could get worse, much worse, before it gets better.
How do you think I'm going to get along
Without you when you're gone
You took me for everything that I had
And kicked me out on my own
Are you happy, are you satisfied
How long can you stand the heat
Out of the doorway the bullets rip
To the sound of the beat
- Queen
"Another One Bites the Dust"
Comments
War is an act of attrition to inflict unproportionate number of casualties to bring political will.
In Vietnam, US lost about 58,000 soldiers compared to 5 million Vietnamese deaths. Unlike the common perception that US lost Vietnam War due to its withdrawal, the domino effect is proven true and US has become the beneficiary. In addition, the US military had not lost a battle of consequence including the Tet68.
In Iraq, US casualty is approaching 3,000 while Iraqi deaths are estimated about 100,000. Again, US will withdraw from Iraq but it has created a political will to stop the radicalization of the region against US and Israel by inadvertently turning middle east into a civil war theater. Shites against Sunnis, and Kurds are waiting at the sideline. Lebanon is also heading into civil war. Not to mention, there is windfall on Pakistan and Afghanistan brought into US influence.
The terrible human cost in Iraq will place the Arab leaders to grapple with reality that the mighty Satan is already among themselves and stop sponsoring terrorism.
-pax-
Very interesting perspective on what "victory" means.
If this is deliberate then it's brilliant.
And it means all the doublespeak is pure smokes and mirrors.
There was the good US intention, but like in Vietnam the americans are not convinced the stakes in Iraq are that high worth of soldiers lives. Vietnam was the beginning of "unintended victory" and most probably Iraq. The disengagement of US military in Iraq will shift the burden to the invisible players. The Sunnis in Saudi Arabia certainly will not be happy at their tv screens watching the Shiites slaughtering their brothers with Shiites backing from Syria and Iran. Saudi Arabia is the missing piece of the domino effect. And so it
will begin....
-pax-